Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $1,486,757$ on 2020-05-17
Best fit exponential: \(1.22 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,513,622.4}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 44.3)}}\) (asimptote \(1,513,622.4\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $89,562$ on 2020-05-17
Best fit exponential: \(6.58 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{91,355.4}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 42.7)}}\) (asimptote \(91,355.4\))
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $1,124,930$ on 2020-05-17
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $78,332$ on 2020-05-17
Best fit exponential: \(5.17 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{83,563.4}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 48.3)}}\) (asimptote \(83,563.4\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $5,903$ on 2020-05-17
Best fit exponential: \(249 \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(13.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,532.7}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 45.5)}}\) (asimptote \(6,532.7\))
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $33,866$ on 2020-05-17
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $9,606$ on 2020-05-17
Best fit exponential: \(791 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,398.0}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 44.2)}}\) (asimptote \(10,398.0\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $275$ on 2020-05-17
Best fit exponential: \(20.3 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(17.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{292.9}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 44.4)}}\) (asimptote \(292.9\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $3,250$ on 2020-05-17
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $49,219$ on 2020-05-17
Best fit exponential: \(1.18 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.027t}\) (doubling rate \(11.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{83,987.2}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 56.6)}}\) (asimptote \(83,987.2\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $5,177$ on 2020-05-17
Best fit exponential: \(156 \times 10^{0.030t}\) (doubling rate \(9.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,491.6}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 49.2)}}\) (asimptote \(9,491.6\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $10,713$ on 2020-05-17
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $12,314$ on 2020-05-17
Best fit exponential: \(785 \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(15.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{15,524.9}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 49.5)}}\) (asimptote \(15,524.9\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $428$ on 2020-05-17
Best fit exponential: \(58.1 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(19.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{437.8}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 32.4)}}\) (asimptote \(437.8\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $6,039$ on 2020-05-17
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $2,646$ on 2020-05-17
Best fit exponential: \(60.4 \times 10^{0.028t}\) (doubling rate \(10.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{27,697.7}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 92.4)}}\) (asimptote \(27,697.7\))
Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $142$ on 2020-05-17
Best fit exponential: \(12.2 \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{231.8}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 46.8)}}\) (asimptote \(231.8\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $2,185$ on 2020-05-17
Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $1,872$ on 2020-05-17
Best fit exponential: \(286 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(19.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,887.1}{1 + 10^{-0.053 (t - 29.6)}}\) (asimptote \(1,887.1\))
Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $79$ on 2020-05-17
Best fit exponential: \(11.8 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{82.9}{1 + 10^{-0.056 (t - 27.8)}}\) (asimptote \(82.9\))
Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $298$ on 2020-05-17
Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $1,338$ on 2020-05-17
Best fit exponential: \(30.1 \times 10^{0.031t}\) (doubling rate \(9.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,693.5}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 77.8)}}\) (asimptote \(9,693.5\))
Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $30$ on 2020-05-17
Best fit exponential: \(2.16 \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(13.3\) days)
Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $844$ on 2020-05-17
